Scholars have long debated whether the Chinese economy has been in a secular decline since the nineteenth century. During this Quantitative History Webinar, Ziang Liu of the Centre for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, will present wage evidence from local hydraulic construction projects in Suzhou, Shanghai, and other Lower Yangzi cores that challenges this thesis within the region. Throughout the nineteenth century, the conscription system used to mobilise labours irreversibly shifted towards market hiring. While the administrative system still functioned as a labour pool, the market dynamics determined worker wages. Although wages saw a mild decline from the 1820s to the 1860s, a substantial improvement followed. The most significant change took place in the early twentieth century when wage trends broke through the typical decline-rebound cycle and moved towards intensive growth. Moreover, wage differentials between unskilled and semi-skilled labours, as well as between casual and stable employment, indicate a growing integration of the labour market across rural and urban sectors and industries in the Lower Yangzi Delta.

Discussant: Kaixiang Peng, Professor of Economics, Wuhan University
(The discussion will be conducted in Mandarin, accompanied by English presentation)