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A Micro-Demographic Analysis of Fertility from Chinese Genealogies
Prof. Sijie Hu
Assistant Professor
School of Economics at Renmin University of China
Date and Time: April 29, 2025 (Tue) 09:00-10:30 HKT
Venue: Lecture Hall at May Hall, HKU
Join us in person
A Micro-Demographic Analysis of Fertility from Chinese Genealogies
Prof. Sijie Hu
Assistant Professor
School of Economics at Renmin University of China
Date and Time: April 29, 2025 (Tue) 09:00-10:30 HKT
Venue: Lecture Hall at May Hall, HKU
Join us in person
Title:
A Micro-Demographic Analysis of Fertility from Chinese Genealogies
Speaker :
Prof. Sijie Hu
Assistant Professor,
School of Economics at Renmin University of China
Date/Time :
April 29, 2025 (Tue) 09:00-10:30 HKT
Venue :
Lecture Hall, G/F, May Hall, The University of Hong Kong (Map)
Language:
English
Enquiry :
Registration :
Title :
A Micro-Demographic Analysis of Fertility from Chinese Genealogies
Speaker :
Prof. Sijie Hu
Assistant Professor,
School of Economics at Renmin University of China
Date/Time :
April 29, 2025 (Tue) 09:00-10:30 HKT
Venue :
Lecture Hall, G/F, May Hall, The University of Hong Kong (Map)
Language :
English
Enquiry :
Registration :
The increasing availability of historical microdata offers new opportunities to explore demographic patterns in the past. This research uses genealogical records of 23,449 males and their spouses from six Chinese lineages spanning 1300–1920 to examine the intergenerational transmission of fertility and human capital. The empirical results reveal a strong trade-off between reproduction and long-term reproductive success: high reproduction in each generation did not consistently lead to long-term reproductive success. Further analysis of the mechanisms is consistent with a child quantity-quality trade-off, highlighting the potential costs of excessive reproduction through different outcomes in sons’ quality: having more brothers exhibited minimal impact on marriageability but was associated with lower human capital. Together, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of micro-demographic dynamics in pre-modern China and the persistence of Malthusian constraints.
Sijie Hu is an Assistant Professor in the School of Economics at Renmin University of China. She holds a Ph.D. in Economic History from the London School of Economics and Political Science. Her research focuses on Chinese historical demography and economic history, with an emphasis on understanding micro-demographic dynamics in traditional China using large-scale individual-level data. She was awarded the Sir Timothy Coghlan Prize for the best article in the Asia-Pacific Economic History Review (2023), won First Prize for Best Research Paper at the 7th International Symposium on Quantitative History, and was a finalist for the Best Dissertation Award at the 19th World Economic History Congress. As Principal Investigator, she has received a Youth Scholar Grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
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