In unified growth models, a key to achieving sustained economic growth is the evolving nexus between population dynamics and technological change. Sijie Hu of Renmin University of China uses the genealogical records of 36,456 males to investigate this nexus—the intergenerational transmission of reproduction and human capital—within six Chinese lineages from 1350 to 1920. By examining the relationship between reproduction and long-run reproductive success, the empirical results reveal an optimal level of reproduction of seven sons, although 99 percent of the sample had fewer than seven sons. Her finding suggests that, for the majority in the sample, greater reproduction in each generation was conducive to long-run reproductive success. In exploring the mechanisms through which reproduction affected long-run reproductive success, I investigate the relationship between child quantity and quality.

During this Quantitative History Webinar, Sijie will explain her results that indicate a quantity-quality trade-off of children was largely absent in the six lineages. She will also explain why her study concludes that, in Ming–Qing (1368–1911) China, the decision to have larger families provided significant advantages to high-status men, enabling them to produce a greater number of high-quality male descendants across successive generations.

Discussant: Carol H. Shiue, Professor of Economics, University of Colorado-Boulder